| Analysis
of variance, one of the most powerful tools in mathematical
statistics, is widely applied in science and engineering.
Analysis of variance and degrees of freedom are as inseparable
as Alice and Wonderland, and will remain so until our sun
turns into a red giant. In the meantime, hold on to your geostatistical
textbooks or buy a few before science fiction buffs do.
Complete Statistics 101 before marching around in a mathematical
cul-de-sac where Matheron's gurus pound kriging drums and beat randomness by assuming, kriging, smoothing and rigging
the rules of classical statistics. Contact the International
Association of Mathematical Geology to find out when the kriged
estimate lost its variance, why kriging variances converge
on zero, and who knows how to compute unbiased confidence
limits for metal contents and grades of reserves without using degrees of
freedom.
ISO Technical Committees are in the business
of developing internationally recognized and scientifically
sounds standards. Yet, even the Bre-X fraud didn't provide
sufficient impetus to develop ISO Standards to protect
mining investors. On the contrary, unbiased confidence
limits for contents and grades of ore reserves remain
as elusive as the variance of a single distance-weighted average-cum-kriged estimate,
and the resource game is as risky now as it was during
Bre-X's glory days when salting and kriging conspired
so conveniently and convincingly. What recourse do mining
investors have when a mine fails to make the grade?
Ironically, the world's mining industry pines to do more
with less but pays scant attention to mathematical
statistics. Regulatory agencies rely on members of professional
associations who may teach, practice or dismiss geostatistics.
Institutions of higher learning such as McGill, Stanford, UBC, and scores of others, teach
the kriging game with utter contempt for mathematical
statistics. All that is necessary for the proliferation
of invalid statistics is that professional engineers and geoscientists do nothing. Give
me your views on how to advance mathematical statistics in mineral exploration and mining.
Should the world's mining industry support an ISO Technical Committee on reserves and resources estimation? Would you participate?
I'll respond to serious questions but not to geostat drivel
because I've had more than enough for a lifetime!
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