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Correspondence

Presidents of several universities were apprised of the fact that geostatistics is an invalid variant of mathematical statistics simply because it violates the requirement of functional independence and ignores the concept of degrees of freedom. These interrelated claims demand a modicum of mathematical statistics to grasp that the validity of geostatistics is indeed suspect. So I am quite surprised that my allegations have yet to arouse any concern. The more so because Journel, Stanford's outstanding geostatistical scholar, postulated, "The very reason for geostatistics or spatial statistics in general is the acceptance (a decision rather) that spatially distributed data should be considered a priori as dependent one to another, unless proven otherwise". What Journel did not reveal whose decision it was! Paradoxically, Fisher's F-test proved that gold grades of an ordered set of rounds in a drift displayed a significant degree of spatial dependence whereas Journel perused the same set and suggested that one's reading may be "too encumbered with classical 'Fischerian' [sic] statistics".

Stanford's Journel accepts spatial dependence a priori, Stanford's President is no expert on interpolation without justification, and JMG's Editor wrote, "Your feeling that geostatistics is invalid might be correct". Abysmal ignorance and gigantic egos are formidable forces in this universe. The information posted on this page proves beyond reasonable doubt that the Tolstoy Syndrome is not only endemic among geostatistical scholars and those who entrust them with educating future generations but also among professionals who are bound by Codes of Ethics such as those compiled by the Canadian Council of Professional Engineers and by the Canadian Council of Professional Geoscientists, whose members are deemed to protect the public at large.

AIPG
American Institute of Professional Geologists
APEGBC

Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of British Columbia

ASTM
American Society for Testing and Materials
BCSC
British Columbia Securities Commission
CCPE
Canadian Council of Professional Engineers
CCPG
Canadian Council of Professional Geoscientists
CIM
Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum
IMM
Institution of Mining and Metallurgy
JMG
Journal of Mathematical Geology cum Geosciences
OSC
Ontario Securities Commission
SEC
Securities and Exchange Commission
SU
Stanford University
TSX
Toronto Stock Exchange
UBC
University of British Columbia

note: All correspondence is posted in Adobe format and requires the free Adobe reader software for viewing. Click here to get the software.

AIPG20050221
I ask Dr R G Font, President, American Institute of Professional Geologists, to respond to my earlier request to investigate the validity of geostatistics but I have yet to receive a response.

APEGBC20030424
Mr H McBride, PEng, Director, Professional Ethics, was informed that my services may involve the practice of geoscience and he asked to submit a written response
to his concerns about my work within two weeks.

APEGBC20030428
I describe what I have been doing for many years, and advise Mr McBride, PEng, that my crusade against geostatistics is of particular interest to those entrusted with professional ethics and duties to the public.

APEGBC20030507
APEGBC's Deputy Director, Professional Ethics, acknowledges my letter with attachments and confirms my correspondence is under review.

APEGBC20030520
I urge Mr McBride, PEng, to investigate my case against geostatistics and its statistically challenged practitioners, and to review his own Code of Ethics before his review of my work becomes an embarrassment.

APEGBC20030611
Mr H McBride, PEng, Deputy Director, Professional Ethics, advises that my work appears not to contravene the Engineers and Geoscientists Act, and that "our file in this matter is closed with no further action".

APEGBC20030623
I urge Mr H McBride, Deputy Director, Professional Ethics, to investigate whether or not the geostatistical practice of interpolation without justification contravenes the Engineers and Geoscientists Act, and I offer to assist him.

APEGBC20030825
Mr H McBride, PEng, responds by explaining how to file a complaint against specific members, and why he deems APEGBC's Geoscience Committee a better forum for addressing my concerns about geostatistics.

APEGBC20031001
I explain to Mr H McBride, PEng, why the geostatistical practice of interpolation without justification, as taught by Dr Alastair J Sinclair, PEng, PGeo, and a UBC Professor Emeritus, is at variance with mathematical statistics.

APEGBC20031002
I present the essence of my case against geostatistics to Ms J Hardy, PGeo, Chair, Geoscience Committee.

APEGBC20031006
Mr H McBride, PEng, Deputy Director, Professional Ethics, will review my concerns about geostatistics and confirmed that my information has been forewarded to Ms J Hardy, PGeo, Chair, Geoscience Committee.

APEGBC20031128
Mr H McBride, PEng, Deputy Director, Professional Ethics, concludes that there is no evidence to indicate that Dr A J Sinclair, PEng, PGeo, was "unprofessional or unethical in his conduct or in his provision of professional engineering and/or geoscience services".

APEGBC20040113
Ms J Hardy, PGeo, Chair, Geoscience Committee, advises that her Committee is not intended to be a technical body, does not have the mandate to deal with technical issues, and is unable to offer an opinion on the issues I raised.

ASTM19940419
I report to Mr J A Thomas, President, American Society for Testing and Materials, my concern about the application of geostatistics in ASTM Standard Methods for Soil and Rock, and suggest ASTM Committee E-11 should its validity.

ASTM19940513
Mr J A Thomas advised that his Director of Technical Committee Operations will bring my concern to the attention of the appropriate technical committee, and that Committee E-11 can play a role in technically accurate documents.

ASTM19941125
I urge ASTM's President to peruse the terms "kriging" and "kriging variance" in ASTM D5549-Standard Guide for Geostatistical Site Investigation, and to have a statistician of E-11 examine the validity of geostatistical data analysis.

ASTM19941202
Mr R J Morgan, ASTM's Director of Technical Committee Operations, invites my to make my concerns an item of business for the next meeting of D18.01.07.

ASTM19941220
I advise ASTM's Director of Technical Committee Operations that I am pleased with his course of action but unable to attend this meeting of D18.01.07.

ASTM19950112
I ask Dr I A Johnson, Chairman, D18.01, to have a geostatistician respond to my questions about the validity of kriging variances and covariances.

ASTM19950304
Mr P S Unger, Vice Chairman, ASTM Committee E-11, has asked Dr R Stone, 1st Vice Chair, to review the documents in question.

ASTM19950401
Dr R Stone, 1st Vice Chair, ASTM Committee E-11, reviewed the documents and wonders what is expected of him except to get in contact with me.

ASTM19950412
I explain to Dr R Stone that I question the validity of the variance of a set of distance-weighted averages simply because computing kriging variances of set of kriged estimates is the most popular geostaticall pastime.

BCSC20060324
I urge Mr D Hyndman, BCSC's Chair, to investigate the validity of geostatistics by finding the answer to the question of whether or not each distance-weighted average aka kriged estimate has its own variance.

BCSC20060403
BCSC's Chair points out, "The qualified person must comply with professional standards of competence and ethics established by the professional association to which they must belong", but does not explain why such professional associations permit the scientific fraud of interpolation without justification.

CIM19920320
My very first letter to a CIM President (William E Stanley, PEng) about some Professional Development Program.

CIM19920508
This is the second of many letters to a president of the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum.

CIM19920921
CIM Bulletin's Editor and Associate Editor emphasize points that would make "Abuse of Statistics" fit for publication under the heading "Forum".

CIM19981116
In my final letter to a CIM President (Dr Y Harvey), I explain once more why geostatistics is an invalid variant of mathematical statistics.

CIM19981209
Dr Y Harvey, CIM's President, responds that the proper forum to discuss my concens are Mr J T Postle, CIM Ad Hoc Committee on Reserves, Mr M Vallee, President, CIM Geological Society, and Mr K N Spence, President, CIM Mineral Economics Society.

CIM19981212
In a facsimile memo to Mr M Vallee, PEng, President, CIM Geological Society, I pose just three (3) simple but fundamental questions.

CIM1990222
Mr M Vallee, PEng, President, CIM Geological Society, could not address functional dependence because his daughter had borrowed David's book, and reports he is as critical from his practical perpective as I am from my theoretical standpoint.

CCPE20050124
I explain to Ms M Lemay, PEng, Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Council of Professional Engineers, why geostatistics is an invalid variant of mathematical statistics, and urge her to investigate the validity of the geostatistical practice of interpolation without justification.

CCPE20050329
Mr J Kizas, Manager, Strategic Development, responds to my letter to his Chief Executive Officer, and suggests I contact one of the Canadian licencing bodies and complain one of its members engages in misconduct.

CCPE20050411
I complain to Ms M Lemay, PEng, Chief Executive Officer, about the suggestions of her Manager, Strategic Development, point out once more that interpolation without justification is a scientific fraud, and wait for a professional response.

CCPG20050124
I explain to Mr M Boivin, geo, President, Canadian Council of Professional Geoscientists, why geostatistics is an invalid variant of mathematical statistics, and urge him to investigate the validity of the geostatistical practice of interpolation without justification.

IMM19920911
Dr S Dunton, Assistant Editor, Mining Magazine, The Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, reports that he does not wish to lend IMM's support to my attack on kriging by publishing my paper, and that his reviewers are of the opinion that my work reveals a basic misunderstanding of geostatistics.

JMG19901114
Attached to my first letter to Professor Dr R Ehrlich, Editor, Journal for Mathematical Geology, was "Precision Estimates for Ore Reserves" and a few others that explain who I was, and what else I had written.

JMG19910228
Professor Dr R Ehrlich, Editor, Journal for Mathematical Geology, informed me that Dr G Koch approved "Precision Estimates for Ore Reserves" but that Dr R Froideveaux did not approve our paper.

JMG19920210
Professor Dr R Ehrlich, MG's Editor, requested Dr M Armstrong, his Associate Editor, to referee"Precision Estimates for Ore Reserves" when Dr G Koch, Jr and Dr R Froideveaux disagreed on its merits. Armstrong's rant puts into perpective what MG's geostatistical peer review was all about in the early 1990s.

JMG19921026
When MG's Editor wrote "Your feeling that geostatistics is invalid might be correct", he attached a copy of Journel's letter, in which Stanford's prominent geostatistician pronounced that spatial dependence may be assumed.

JMG199504_1
JMG199504_2
Dr D F Merriam became JMG's Editor in January 1995. He rejected The Properties of Variances on April 14, 1995. One of his reviewers pointed out that degrees of freedom are no longer relevant. Both reviews are posted.

JMG20030321
This letter to Dr W E Sharp, MG's Editor, gives a synopsis of my case against geostatistics in general, and against MG's blatantly biased, shamelessly self- serving peer review process.

JMG20040609
My email to Professor D G Krige, MG's Assistant Editor, gives the most relevant principles of mathematical statistics, and inquires why the distance-weighted average lost its variance before it turned into a kriged estimate. On September 21, 2004, Krige responded, "I am not searching for any lost variances..."

JMG20040907
My email to Professor Dr A G Journal, MG's Assistant Editor, inquires why spatial dependence may be assumed and need not be routinely verified by applying Fisher's F-test. The coauthor of "Mining Geostatistics", the second textbook on the theory and practice of geostatistics, has yet to respond.

JMG20040913
In my email to Dr M Armstrong, MG's Assistant Editor, I ask the scholar who cautioned against against oversmoothing why geostatisticians may violate the fundamental requirement of functional independenc a little but not a lot. The seminal ex-Editor of De Geostatisticis has yet to respond

JMG20040920
My email to Dr R Dimitrakopoulos, MG's Assistant Editor, reminds him that each distance-weighted average-cum-kriged estimate has its own variance, and that he rejected in 1993 an abstract of a paper in which this variance is derived.

JMG20060220
Professor Dr W E Sharp, MG's Editor-in-Chief, could not count degrees of freedom for ordered sets in 1998, still cannot count degrees of freedom in 2006 but wanted his degrees of freedom in my paper, which I wrote at his request.

OSC19920218
I point out to Mr J Drury, PEng, Chief Mining Consultant, Ontario Securities Commission, and Chairman, CIM Ad Hoc Reserve Definitions Committee, that kriging variances are invalid.

OSC19941130
I suggest to Mr J Drury, PEng, Chairman, CIM Ad Hoc Reserve Definitions Committee, that his committee ought to address confidence limits for metal contents and grades of reserves and resources.

OSC19951023
Mr J Drury, PEng, responds that CIM's Ad Hoc Reserve Definition Committee is grateful for my contribution and "will work toward an international system which is compatible with Canadian requirements". Bre-X's salters are busy already!

OSC20050621
I point out to Mr D Brown, Chair, Ontario Securities Commission, that it is fitting for the OSC to continue "to persue Bre-X" but that I cautioned OSC's chief mining consultant about the validity of geostatistics long before the Bre-X fraud.

OSC20050726
Ms D McCombe, PGeo, OSC's Chief Mining Consultant, advises that the OSC relies on the mining industry to set standards, and that the qualified person must be a member of a professional association with professional standards and a professional code of ethics, in addition to proper education, practical experience, and so on.

OSC20050823
I report to Ms S Wolburgh Jenah, OCS's Acting-Chair, that it was waste of her time and mine to have her Chief Mining Consultant praise National Instrument 43-110 and recite, "the qualified person must be a member of a professional association with professional standards and a code of ethics".

OSC20050824
I remind Ms D McCombe, PGeo, Chief Mining Consultant, that Dr A J Sinclair, PEng, PGeo, a UBC Professor Emeritus, CIM's most dedicated enforcer of geostatistics and a qualified person, approved National Instrument 43-110, and that Alice in Wonderland displays more sound science than this document.

OSC20051121
I bring to the attention of Mr D Wilson, Chair, that Canada's most dedicated enforcer of geostatistics approved National Instrument 43-110, and that the geostatistical practice of interpolation without justification does not disturb the Canadian Councils of Professional Engineers and of Professional Geoscientists.

OSC20060324
I urge Mr D Wilson, OSC's Chair, to investigate the validity of geostatistics by finding the answer to my perennial question of whether or not each kriged estimate formerly know as a distance-weighted average has its own variance.

OSC20060417
OSC's Chair forwarded my letter to Ms D McCombe, Chief Mining Consultant, who appreciates my views in the context of best practices but does not explain why Journel's edict to assume spatial dependence between measured values is not a scientific fraud but became part of "best practices".

SEC20031208
I report to Mr W H Donaldson, Chairman, US Securities and Exchange Commission, that geostatistics, unlike mathematical statistics, cannot possibly give unbiased confidence limits for metal contents and grades of reserves.

SEC20040806
I urge Mr W H Donaldson, Chairman, US Securities and Exchange Commission, to have one of his mining experts attend the Seventh International Geostatistics Congress in Banff, Alberta, from September 26 to October 1, 2004.

SEC20060123
I ask Dr B Cartwright, Chief Legal Offficer, to investigate the veracity of my allegation that geostatistics is an invalid variant of mathematical statistics.

SU19921015
Dr A G Journel, lead author of Mining Geostatistics, a Professor at Stanford University and a first generation student of Matheron's new science, makes a mockery of peer review for the Journal for Mathematical Geology.

SU20030627
In my letter to Dr J L Hennessy, President, Stanford University, I point out that geostatistics, a fundamental flawed variant of mathematical statistics, is taught at Stanford, and ask his opinion.

SU20030709
Stanford's President advises he has no comment on the matter since he is no expert in the field.

SU20030825
I point out to Stanford's President that an academic with impeccable credentials ought to recognize that the Journelian presumption of spatial dependence without proof is purely a game of chance.

SU20040818
I explain once more to Stanford's President what's wrong with geostatistics, and why Stanford should care.

SU20040827
I suggest Dr J L Hennessy, President of Stanford University, attend the Seventh Geostatistics Congress in Banff, Canada, but to no avail.

TSX19970520
I propose to Mr R Fleming, President & Chief Executive Officer, The Toronto Stock Exchange, that an ISO Technical Committee for ore reserves and resources be set up.

TSX19970607
In a facsimile memo to the TSE's CEO, I request a response to my letter

TSX19970609
Mr R Fleming, President & Chief Executive Officer, The Toronto Stock Exchange, has "duly noted my comments".

TSX19980727
My letter to the TSE/OSC Mining Standards Task Force explains why the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum cannot be entrusted with the development of scientifically sound standards for ore reserve and resource estimation.

UBC19900221
My course on sampling and statistics was so well received that a 5-day course on Geostatistics for the Mining Industry, New Concepts, New Tools, was necessary to repair all the damage.

UBC19991116
Professor Dr R M Ellis., Head of UBC's Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, muses that controversial issues provide"a remarkable effective teaching environment".

UBC20000110
I advise Professor Dr R M Ellis that I would prefer a public debate rather than another discussion with Professor Dr A J Sinclair, PEng, PGeo, in the privacy of his UBC Office.

UBC2000!
Professor Dr R M Ellis, who does believe that controversial issues provide "a remarkably effective teaching environment", is not interested in a public debate.

UBC20030113
My letter to Dr M C Piper, UBC's President, explains why geostatistical thinking is at variance with UBC's role in teaching critical thinking and searching for answers.

UBC20030205
Dr M C Piper, UBC's President, reports that my letter and materials on "very technical scientific inquiry" were made available to relevant faculties and departments.

UBC20030331
I thank Dr M C Piper for her response, and emailed her a copy of my letter to Professor Dr W E Sharp, Editor, Journal of Mathematical Geology.

UBC20040809
I advise Dr M C Piper that Dr A J Sinclair, PEng, PGeo, a UBC Professor Emeritus, continues to teach interpolation without justification, a practice that makes no scientific sense in any discipline but geostatistics. UBC's President does not return any of my calls.

 

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