Silent
pundits
When
pundits get together, concerns about priority precede
the need for scientific integrity as much as Journel's
assumption of spatial dependence precedes Fisher's F-test.
Other sources of concern are argument, debate and invective.
Krige mused in 1977 that geostatistics encountered, "some
stormy receptions from the English-speaking mining countries
around the world." Armstrong was troubled in 1989
by the rise and fall of kriging covariances and variances.
Journel recalled in 1992 that, "Mathematical Geology
has had more than its share of invective."
I
submitted in June 1993 an abstract for a paper in which
I derived the variance of a single
kriged estimate, and deduced that the kriging
variance of a set of kriged
estimates is invalid. My "very interesting"
paper could not be accommodated but when I asked Dimitrakopoulos,
Chairman of Geostatistics for the Next Century,
a Forum in honor of David, author of first geostatistical
textbook, if I could attend without presenting a paper,
I received no response.
It
has occurred to IAMG's President that I might wish to
voice my concerns at the 2005 IAMG meeting in Toronto
. Need Krige be told in person that the distance-weighted
average lost its variance when it turned into a kriged
estimate? How often do I have to tell Journel that assuming
spatial dependence makes no sense? And how many times
do I have to tell Armstrong that the kriging variance
of a set
of kriged estimates is as meaningless a measure for variability
as its kriging covariance is for spatial dependence? How
many more gurus need I tell face-to-face that each calculated
datum has its own variance? And that a set
of n measured
data with equal weights give df r =n-1
degrees of freedom for the randomized set, and df
o =2(n-1) for the first variance term of the ordered
set?

Geostatistics is beyond salvation! If the pundits were
to break their silence and admit that the distance-weighted
average does indeed have its own variance, and that its
metamorphosis into a kriged estimate does not make it
any less functionally dependent, then the clock is turned
back to mathematical statistics. It saddens me that so
many textbooks were published after I reported in April
1992 that geostatistics is a fundamentally flawed variant
of mathematical statistics. I shall post more reviews
if and when necessary. Most of all, I shall post numerous
applications of statistical methods on my website. |